The Anti-Taliban Resistance Has Survived. Can It Win?– warontherocks.com

As the Taliban enters its sixth year in power, it remains more powerful than it was before the Sept. 11 attacks. The Taliban’s flag flies in all of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces. While only Russia has formally recognized the group as the country’s government, China and the United Arab Emirates have officially accredited or accepted Taliban ambassadors and exchanged diplomatic staff, with Pakistan, Qatar, Iran, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Turkey establishing de facto working relationships with the Sunni Deobandi group. Even its archrival, the Islamic State in Afghanistan, has seen its attack activity decline after years of counter-terrorism operations.

However, beneath the surface and far from the spotlight, the anti-Taliban resistance — a motley crew of over a dozen groups led by former leaders of the previous government — has survived despite having neither an established cross-border military sanctuary nor an overt state sponsor, two key ingredients for a successful insurgency. In the last two years, these groups have multiplied, and the tempo and geographical reach of their attacks have expanded.

Despite the anti-Taliban resistance’s modest gains, Western governments should consider preliminary public engagements with resistance leaders if Pakistan’s outreach bears fruit and the groups gain traction after unifying, while making future support contingent on their ability to seize and hold territory. Maintaining these relationships, many dating back more than 20 years, will preserve the West’s options should Pakistan’s relationship with the Taliban continue to deteriorate or should the Taliban prove unwilling or unable to constrain al-Qaeda’s external operations from its training camps in Afghanistan.